[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 090232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR IVAN CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.  A HURRICANE WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.  HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA THURSDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155
KM NORTH OF CURACAO IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES.  THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 595 MILES... 960 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA
NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 69.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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