[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 081448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280  KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 66.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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