[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 071442
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

13.0N  65.6W      48  1  X  X 49   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X 17  4 21
14.0N  68.5W       1 32  1  X 34   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  8 10 18
15.0N  71.5W       X  4 22  X 26   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  5 15 20
SKPG 125N 717W     X  3 11  1 15   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X 18 18
TNCC 122N 690W     1 18  2  X 21   MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X 16 16
SVMG 110N 640W    20  X  X  X 20   MWCG 193N 814W     X  X  X  5  5
TTPP 106N 614W    14  X  X  X 14   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X 16 16
TTPT 112N 608W    99  X  X  X 99   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X 10 10
TGPY 120N 618W    81  X  X  X 81   MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  3  3
TBPB 131N 595W    82  X  X  X 82   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  2  1  1  4
TVSV 131N 612W    86  X  X  X 86   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  3  7 10
TLPL 138N 610W    55  X  X  X 55   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  4  4
TFFF 146N 610W    10  X  X  X 10   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  4  4
TDPR 153N 614W     3  X  X  X  3   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2
80400 157N 636W   11  2  X  X 13   ST CROIX VI        X  2  X  X  2
TISX 177N 648W     X  2  X  X  2   SAN JUAN PR        X  2  1  1  4
TJPS 180N 666W     X  4  3  1  8   PONCE PR           X  4  3  1  8
MDSD 185N 697W     X  1 11  2 14

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
C FROM  8PM WED TO  8AM THU
D FROM  8AM THU TO  8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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