[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 071147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN REACHES 115 MPH WINDS WHILE NEARING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...
ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE
...AND ST. LUCIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
59.4 WEST OR ABOUT  110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTH OF BARBADOS. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...135 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOBAGO.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
NEAR 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS  963 MB...28.45 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.6 N... 59.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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