[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 070832
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  58.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

13.0N  64.5W      50  1  X  X 51   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  7 14 21
14.2N  67.6W       1 34  1  X 36   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  3 19 22
15.5N  70.5W       X  6 21  1 28   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X 17 17
SKPG 125N 717W     X  1  7  2 10   MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X 14 14
TNCC 122N 690W     X 11  4  1 16   MWCG 193N 814W     X  X  X  3  3
SVMG 110N 640W    19  1  X  X 20   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X 18 18
TTPP 106N 614W    17  X  X  X 17   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X 11 11
TTPT 112N 608W    61  X  X  X 61   MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  4  4
TGPY 120N 618W    73  X  X  X 73   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  2  4  X  6
TBPB 131N 595W    70  X  X  X 70   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  4 10 14
TVSV 131N 612W    74  X  X  X 74   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  7  7
TLPL 138N 610W    48  X  X  X 48   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  7  7
TFFF 146N 610W    13  X  X  X 13   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  2  2
TDPR 153N 614W     4  1  X  X  5   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  5  5
80400 157N 636W   12  7  X  X 19   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  3  3
TISX 177N 648W     X  3  2  X  5   ST CROIX VI        X  3  2  X  5
TIST 183N 650W     X  1  1  1  3   ST THOMAS VI       X  1  1  1  3
TJPS 180N 666W     X  4  7  X 11   SAN JUAN PR        X  2  4  X  6
MDSD 185N 697W     X  X 14  4 18   PONCE PR           X  4  7  X 11
MDCB 176N 714W     X  X 17  7 24

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
C FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
D FROM  2AM THU TO  2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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