[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 070302
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

33.7N  85.3W      41  X  X  X 41   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  6  6
35.0N  85.0W      21  2  1  X 24   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  5  5
37.0N  84.0W       1  8  5  2 16   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  3  3
JACKSONVILLE FL    1  1  1  X  3   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        2  3  2  X  7   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  3  3  1  7   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  1  3  2  6   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  3  3  6   ST MARKS FL       99  X  X  X 99
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  1  4  5   APALACHICOLA FL    1  1  X  X  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  1  4  5   PANAMA CITY FL     3  X  1  X  4
NORFOLK VA         X  X  1  6  7   PENSACOLA FL       1  1  1  X  3
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  7  7   MOBILE AL          X  1  1  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
C FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
D FROM  8PM WED TO  8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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