[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 070221
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

RADAR...SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA PLACE THE CENTER OVER
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND MOVING 340/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW A SLOW...LESS THAN 10 KT...MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THIS TRACK IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BEING ERODED TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES.  BY
72 HOURS...FRANCES SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE
WESTERLIES.

MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 30 KT AND FRANCES IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ONLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS WERE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 01Z WITH 33 KT AT 16.5 M
ELEVATION AND FROM A SHIP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AT 00Z WITH 35 KT.
THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL BANDING FEATURE FROM NORTH THROUGH
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS RISING
VERY SLOWLY...NOW ESTIMATED AT 985 MB.  IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS
WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER A
LARGE AREA AS THE BANDING FEATURE ROTATES AROUND THE DEPRESSION.

THE NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 31.3N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 32.3N  84.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 33.7N  85.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 37.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  79.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT


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