[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 061424
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.0N  85.5W      51  X  X  X 51   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
33.5N  85.5W      32  2  X  X 34   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
35.0N  85.0W       8 15  2  1 26   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  1  X  1  2   TAMPA FL           X  1  X  1  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    2  3  2  1  8   CEDAR KEY FL      99  X  X  X 99
SAVANNAH GA        X  3  4  3 10   ST MARKS FL       99  X  X  X 99
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  5  8   APALACHICOLA FL   99  X  X  X 99
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  6  7   PANAMA CITY FL    56  X  X  X 56
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  6  6   PENSACOLA FL      16  1  X  1 18
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  5  5   MOBILE AL          3  3  X  1  7
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  4  4   GULFPORT MS        X  1  X  1  2
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 85W      99  X  X  X 99
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 87W       3  1  X  1  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
C FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
D FROM  8AM WED TO  8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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