[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 060902
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

FINAL T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS
WEAKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT. LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST...275/20. THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96
HOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE STEERING IVAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BY DAY TWO AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA ON
DAY FOUR. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY FIVE WITH NOGAPS
TO THE RIGHT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE
AIDS ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUNS AND
GUNA.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING
130 KT IN 48 HOURS...THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFDL AND
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
LIES AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. INTERACTION OF IVAN WITH HISPANIOLA
WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST HOW MUCH
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BRIEF EVALUATION OF CLIMATOLOGY LOOKING FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SIMILAR TRACKS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM S
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER ENCOUNTER LIMITED DEGRADATION
IN INTENSITY BEFORE EMERGING W OF THE ISLAND. BEARING THIS IN
MIND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD A BIT HIGHER THAN SHIPS BUT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 10.8N  51.6W   110 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 11.6N  54.3W   115 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 12.3N  57.5W   120 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N  60.7W   125 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 14.3N  63.5W   130 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N  69.1W   130 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W    95 KT


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