[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 060602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 06 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS CENTERED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W OR ABOUT 40
MILES WEST OF BAYPORT FLORIDA AT 06/0600 UTC...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976
MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FRANCES
REMAINS A VERY LARGE STORM WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTENDING
OUT 200 NM FROM THE CENTER.  BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA
FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 75W-87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 50.6W AT 06/0600 UTC
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT MAKING IVAN A CATEGORY 4 STORM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IVAN COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A CATEGORY 5 STORM.
ALTHOUGH IVAN IS EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM RADIUS
OF THE WELL DEFINED EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
1N34W-14N30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 15N ACROSS JAMAICA TO OVER CUBA FROM 76W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 17N10W 7N34W 9N45W 9N60W 10N65W. SEE
HURRICANE IVAN AND TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N E OF 20W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N100W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE W GULF FROM 21N-29N W OF 94W. RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER T.S. FRANCES ENE TO
BEYOND 32N69W AND W TO 28N88W. OVER THE GULF...THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 88W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W AND S OF 25N FROM
83W-90W WHICH LIMITING SHOWERS TO IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
FRANCES COVERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NE FLOW W OF
70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N65W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N TO OVER THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER FRANCES ENE TO BEYOND 32N69W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 25N W OF 63W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF 26N FROM 42W-57W.
AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE REGION. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
30N42W WHIT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N51W. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY
TO THE N AND E. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N43W NE TO BEYOND
32N36W. WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 26N28W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW 500 NM OF THE CENTER.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 18N12W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 23W.

$$
WALLACE


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