[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 060548
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  49A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

...FRANCES NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADING TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
FROM SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH EASTWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...AND ALSO
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO BONITA BEACH...AND
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER
INLET NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.3 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES WEST OF BAYPORT FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR  65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES
COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FRANCES REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST 62 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT ST. AUGUSTINE ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST
59 MPH WAS REPORTED AT A C-MAN WEATHER STATION LOCATED ABOUT 25
MILES SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.  ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF
TARPON SPRINGS AND ALSO IN APALACHEE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE WIDE PATH OF FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 83.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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