[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 060239
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT.  CONVECTION IS
REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING -80 DEG C.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN
ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18.  ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS.  FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
MOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS THE
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN.  GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130
KT IN 12 HOURS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 10.8N  49.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N  52.1W   130 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 12.2N  55.6W   130 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  58.9W   130 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 13.8N  61.7W   130 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.1N  67.1W   130 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.7N  71.7W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER


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