[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 060011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 05 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
-
...HURRICANE FRANCES HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...HEADING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT
IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY BACK TO A HURRICANE WHEN OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE FRANCES IS LOCATED BY RADAR AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...OR
ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9
KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY IN HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.94
INCHES. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  BANDS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 75W-86W.

CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 10.4N 47.7W AT
05/2100 UTC...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 18 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  IVAN HAS
STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY INTO THE FOURTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N...MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 18N10W 7N27W 9N45W 8N55W 10N65W 10N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N112W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...INTO WEST TEXAS TO
100W...TO 20N AND 116W.  CYCLONIC CENTER IS OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR 25N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 93W-100W.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WHICH IS ON TOP OF
HURRICANE FRANCES GOES AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AS FAR EAST AS 31N70W...IT CURVES OVER CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE FRANCES MAKES
ITS WAY OVER CUBA IN ORDER TO COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHES THE AREA
WEST OF 70W THANKS TO A RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE AREA OF
HURRICANE FRANCES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N68W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 70W IS TAKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A BROAD BUT
WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 17N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W
AND 77W.

...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER IVAN.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N
TO BEYOND 32N38W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N28W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 420 NM OF THE CENTER.

...THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 15N10W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 20W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER IVAN IS BETWEEN 30W-58W.

$$
FORMOSA




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