[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 051821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 05 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
-
...HURRICANE FRANCES IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...HEADING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH
NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE
WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7
WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 8 KT. A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. RADAR
WIND VELOCITY DATA SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT DAYTONA BEACH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.94 INCHES.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 80W
AND 83W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W.

CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IVAN CENTER NEAR 10.1N 46.6W AT
05/1700 UTC...MOVING WEST 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W
AND 49W. IVAN HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY INTO THE FOURTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W/78W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...PARTLY OVER
PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
WITH THIS WAVE...STRETCH FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N16W 8N30W 9N41W 8N59W 8N60W AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA 10N76W 10N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
27W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR THE COAST. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...INTO WEST TEXAS TO 100W...
TO 20N AND 116W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 31N98W...WITH ITS CIRCULATION COVERING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A BROAD
AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS A LARGE PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE FRANCES MOISTURE...WHICH IS
PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND THE GULF
EAST OF 29N88W 25N84W 24N83W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW WHICH IS ON TOP OF HURRICANE FRANCES GOES AS FAR NORTH
AS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AS FAR EAST AS 31N70W...IT
CURVES OVER CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WATERS AWAY
FROM THE HURRICANE FRANCES PRECIPITATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE FRANCES MAKES
ITS WAY OVER CUBA IN ORDER TO COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHES THE AREA
WEST OF 70W THANKS TO A RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE AREA OF
HURRICANE FRANCES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N68W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 70W IS TAKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A BROAD BUT
WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 17N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W...
SOME OF IT DISSIPATING WITH TIME WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY WEST OF 67W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W. THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF 67W IS RELATED TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 05/1500 UTC AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DEFORMATION AXIS OR AREA OF A COL WITHIN
ABOUT 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N62W TO 26N58W TO 28N55W. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR WITHIN AT LEAST 200 NM NORTHWEST OF 23N64W 25N55W
29N46W UNDER THIS AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH...IS IN THE AREA OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF
IT... EITHER FROM AN OLD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
OR A TROUGH...ALONG 32N44W 25N46W 19N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND
43W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PLACE IN THE AREA
EAST OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 37W AND
55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS A BIG AREA SOUTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE WITH
HURRICANE IVAN...FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 25N28W...WITH DRY AIR AROUND IT. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
CENTER FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

...THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
WEST AFRICA NEAR 5N AT THE EQUATOR...WESTWARD TO 7N20W...CURVING
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO MOROCCO.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS...SURROUNDED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...ARE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THIS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MOVING TOWARD HURRICANE IVAN.

$$
MT


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