[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 051816
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-052115-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

INLAND WALTON...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...JACKSON...WASHINGTON...
CALHOUN...BAY...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE.

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON.

IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...
COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR LANIER...BROOKS...
COOK...LOWNDES AND BERRIEN COUNTIES IN GEORGIA...AND MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE
AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA.
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST...OR 55 MILES EAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRANCES
SHOULD MOVE INTO GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 980 MB...OR 28.84 INCHES. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST OUTER RAIN BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES ARE MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD
ACT NOW TO MAKE THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES
AND A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO IN CASE OF POWER FAILURES. NEVER USE CANDLES DUE TO
THE HIGH RISK OF FIRE. HAVE A FULLY STOCKED HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KIT
AVAILABLE.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
DEPENDANT UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. IF THE STORM WERE TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OR EVEN STALL...RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.

FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY. STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN CITIES
AND TOWNS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES.
MOST AREA RIVERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...HOWEVER IF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
REALIZED...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME WILL REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
APALACHEE BAY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS COULD REACH 70 MPH IN GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. SOME DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL REACH 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE...1240 AM...HIGH TIDE...629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE...1218 AM...HIGH TIDE...606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE...137 AM...HIGH TIDE...751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF WATERS EAST OF
APALACHICOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THERE WILL BE INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE GULF COAST EAST OF APALACHICOLA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS
FRANCES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES IN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY WITH LITTLE WARNING...ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT
TO SEE DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM EDT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

MAJ

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