[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 051701
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  46.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

11.5N  52.3W      50  2  X  X 52   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  2 15 17
12.4N  55.9W       X 34  2  X 36   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  1 16 17
13.3N  59.4W       X  2 24  1 27   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  X 14 14
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  X  3  3   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 16 16
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  1  7  8   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X  5  4  9   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X 10  4 14   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  6  6
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X  9  8 17   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  3  3
TBPB 131N 595W     X  2 24  X 26   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X 13 13
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X 17  6 23   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  2  2
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X 18  7 25   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 16 16
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X 16  9 25   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 14 14
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X 11 12 23   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X 13 13
80400 157N 636W    X  X  1 20 21   PONCE PR           X  X  X 14 14
TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  5 15 20

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
C FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
D FROM  8AM TUE TO  8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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