[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 051658
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 100 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS
ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY BUT WE SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1700Z 10.1N  46.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  48.7W   110 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  52.3W   115 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N  55.9W   120 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.3N  59.4W   120 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W   120 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W   120 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    70 KT...INLAND


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