[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 051542
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-051800-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1140 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

INLAND WALTON...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...JACKSON...WASHINGTON...
CALHOUN...BAY...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE.

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON.

IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...
COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FOR MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE
AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...OR 80 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...OR 28.79 INCHES. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST OUTER RAIN BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES ARE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE RAIN BANDS WILL AFFECT THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND ACCOMPANIED
BY WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS IN
THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ACT NOW TO MAKE THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES AND A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO IN
CASE OF POWER FAILURES. NEVER USE CANDLES DUE TO THE HIGH RISK OF FIRE.
HAVE A FULLY STOCKED HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KIT IN PLACE.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE DEPENDANT UPON THE EXACT TRACK
AND FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. IF THE STORM WERE
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OR EVEN STALL...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER.

FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY. STREET AND LOW LYING AREAS
IN TOWNS AND CITIES WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THOSE AREAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES. MOST AREA RIVERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW RIGHT
NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...IT IS LIKELY
THAT SOME WILL REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
APALACHEE BAY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UNTIL THIS EVENING
AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
COULD REACH 70 MPH IN GUSTS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL REACH 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE...1240 AM...HIGH TIDE...629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE...1218 AM...HIGH TIDE...606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE...137 AM...HIGH TIDE...751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF WATERS EAST
OF APALACHICOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THERE WILL BE INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE GULF COAST EAST OF APALACHICOLA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES DRAWS CLOSER...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT
WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS FRANCES MOVES
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY WITH LITTLE WARNING...ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO SEE
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 PM EDT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

MAJ

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