[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 051330
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-051535-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

INLAND WALTON...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...JACKSON...WASHINGTON...
CALHOUN...BAY...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE.

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON.

IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...
COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST UP
TO SAINT MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SAINT MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS...AND A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR LEON...MADISON...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA AND
GRADY...THOMAS...BROOKS...AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM EDT FOR MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM EDT...HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975
MB...OR 28.79 INCHES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST OUTER RAIN BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES ARE
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE RAIN BANDS WILL
AFFECT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF ITS
SLOW MOTION AND LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT DETERIORATE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS WILL HAVE MUCH
OF THE DAY TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER
THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE DEPENDANT
UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. IF THE STORM WERE TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OR EVEN STALL...RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.

FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY. STREET AND LOW LYING AREAS
IN TOWNS AND CITIES WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THOSE AREAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES. MOST AREA RIVERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW RIGHT
NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...IT IS LIKELY
THAT SOME WILL REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AS
A TROPICAL STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH A HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER
LAND...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WIND FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF FRANCES FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH APALACHEE BAY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF
39 MPH OR GREATER WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD REACH 70 MPH IN GUSTS IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WITH THESE
WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL
REACH 4 TO 6 FEET...MAINLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE...1240 AM...HIGH TIDE...629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE...1218 AM...HIGH TIDE...606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE...137 AM...HIGH TIDE...751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM.

...TORNADOES...
AS FRANCES DRAWS CLOSER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS FRANCES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TORNADOES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP
SUDDENLY WITH LITTLE WARNING...ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

MAJ
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