[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 051012 CCA
HLSTLH

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-051230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
522 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTH GEORGIA...

  BAKER                            BAY
  BEN HILL                         BERRIEN
  BROOKS                           CALHOUN
  CLAY                             COASTAL WALTON
  COFFEE                           COLQUITT
  COOK                             DALE
  DECATUR                          DIXIE
  DOUGHERTY                        EARLY
  FRANKLIN                         GADSDEN
  GENEVA                           GRADY
  GULF                             HENRY
  HOLMES                           HOUSTON
  INLAND WALTON                    IRWIN
  JACKSON                          JEFFERSON
  LAFAYETTE                        LANIER
  LEE                              LEON
  LIBERTY                          LOWNDES
  MADISON                          MILLER
  MITCHELL                         QUITMAN
  RANDOLPH                         SEMINOLE
  TAYLOR                           TERRELL
  THOMAS                           TIFT
  TURNER                           WAKULLA
  WASHINGTON                       WORTH

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST UP TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS...AND A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR LEON...MADISON...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA AND
GRADY...THOMAS...BROOKS...AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE
REFER TO THE ACTUAL FLOOD WATCH AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH
PRODUCTS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 135 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB
OR 28.44 INCHES. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER CROSSES
OVER LAND.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST RAIN BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES ARE LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN FACT SOME OF THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH. THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS STILL ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
APALACHICOLA. BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOTION AND LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...IT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEATHER
IN THIS AREA TO DETERIORATE. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING
AREAS WILL HAVE GOOD WEATHER MOST OF THE DAY TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THIS AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AS
A TROPICAL STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH A HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...
IF FRANCES FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
NOT REACH APALACHEE BAY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD
REACH 70 MPH IN GUSTS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES WITH THESE TYPES OF WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL
REACH 4 TO 6 FEET...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE 1240 AM...HIGH TIDE 629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE 1218 AM...HIGH TIDE 606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE 137 AM...HIGH TIDE 751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM

...TORNADOES...
AS FRANCES DRAWS CLOSER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...NORTH FLORIDA...AND
THE BIG BEND AREA TODAY. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS FRANCES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TORNADOES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY WITH LITTLE WARNING...ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO SEE
BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY RAIN...AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.


$$

FOURNIER
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