[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 050900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

FRANCES IS JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA WEST
OF STUART. THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. SINCE THAT OSERVATION...A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 963 MB WAS
REPORTED BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER AT PORT
SALERNO FLORIDA. DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT ABOUT 5000 FEET HAVE ALSO
DECREASED TO AROUND 105 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07. A SOLID RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FRANCES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLCCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE WOBBLES TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...AND EVEN A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER 24
HOURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
BY 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY 96-120 HOURS...FRANCES MAY
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES BACK OVER THE VERY
WARM WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND...THE LARGE
CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING BY 36
HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY
BY 36 HOURS IF IT TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND REMAINS OVER THE
WARM GULF OF MEXICO LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 27.2N  80.5W    85 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 27.9N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.8N  83.6W    50 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 29.9N  84.8W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 34.0N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 37.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/0600Z 42.0N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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