[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 050512
HLSTLH

FLZ012-014>019-026>029-034-050800-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
106 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...FRANCES MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...AND DIXIE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING GULF AND BAY COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST UP TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS...AND A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM EDT HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR NEAR SEAWALL'S POINT FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB OR 28.35
INCHES. ALTHOUGH FRANCES MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE IT COMPLETELY MOVES ASHORE...SHE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES OVER LAND.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST RAIN BAND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES IS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS STILL
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA. BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOTION
AND LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLORIDA...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS FOR THE WEATHER IN THIS AREA TO DETERIORATE. THEREFORE
RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS WILL HAVE GOOD WEATHER MOST
OF THE DAY TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THIS AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AT
A TROPICAL STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH A HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...
IF FRANCES FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
NOT REACH APALACHEE BAY AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UNTIL THIS EVENING
AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD REACH 70
MPH IN GUSTS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WATERS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES WITH THESE TYPES OF WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL
REACH 4 TO 6 FEET...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE WATER.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE 1240 AM...HIGH TIDE 629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE 1218 AM...HIGH TIDE 606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE 137 AM...HIGH TIDE 751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$
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