[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KJAX 050257
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ154-166-050530-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES EYE IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE CONTENT OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST. JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...
PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...
BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND
GLYNN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA
TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CLAY...MARION...PUTNAM...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BAKER...
HAMILTON...COLUMBIA...AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES OF NORTH FLORIDA...ALACHUA...BRADFORD...CLAY...DUVAL...
FLAGLER...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST. JOHNS AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES SOUTH OF MAYPORT FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF
PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES.  A CONTINUED SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE INLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THERE IS
STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE OUTER RAINSHIELD OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
THE FLAGLER...MARION...PUTNAM AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WARNING AREAS
SHOULD BE COMPLETED. INTERESTS IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
URGED TO TAKE ACTIONS TO SECURE LIFE AND PROPERTY PRIOR THE ONSET OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A NORMAL TIDE ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. IN COMBINATION WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL...THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY
TRACK DEVIATION TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TONIGHT...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AS NORTHEAST FLORIDA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION.

WINDS ALONG THE NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WILL INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FOR ST JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH...BY MORNING.
WINDS IN PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 30
TO 40 MPH BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...
WINDS IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE IN MARION COUNTY AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES SUSTAINED
WINDS REACHING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT...SOME AREAS
ALONG AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF FURTHER FROM THE TRACK.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON THE PREDICTED TRACK OF FRANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO
4 INCHES. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF
THE STORM WERE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 AM EDT...OR EARLIER SHOULD
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SANDRIK/HESS
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