[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 050232
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  42.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

10.7N  48.2W      50  X  X  X 50   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  1 16 17
11.8N  51.5W       3 32  X  X 35   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  1 15 16
12.7N  55.1W       X  7 19  1 27   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  X 15 15
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  X  7  7   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  X 13 13
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X  X 11 11   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 11 11
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X  1 12 13   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 10 10
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X  X 13 13   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X  7  7
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X  5 14 19   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X  8  8
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  1 15 16   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 11 11
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X  1 16 17   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 10 10
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  1 17 18   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X  8  8
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  1 16 17   PONCE PR           X  X  X  7  7
80400 157N 636W    X  X  X 14 14

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
C FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
D FROM  8PM MON TO  8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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