[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 042345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 27.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.4 WEST OR ABOUT  50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH.  A
SLOW WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE STRONGEST WINDS SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF
FRANCES SHOULD REACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  75 MILES...120 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.  STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 79.4 W.  EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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