[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 042259 CCA
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-050400-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECT PRODUCT TITLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
NORTHWARD TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA EASTERN PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING GULF AND BAY COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO ST. MARKS...
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:  GADSDEN...LIBERTY...
FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE
AND DIXIE.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY...INCLUDING GULF AND BAY COUNTIES

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALM BEACH
FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MOVE TO THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...HURRICANE FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
TONIGHT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. FRANCES REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AFFECT AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND
WITH THE CHANCES OF RAIN DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE IMPACT OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT OVER THE AREA WELL INTO TUESDAY
OF THE COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
MOVEMENT OF FRANCES FOR ANY CHANGES IN MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA EASTERN
PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL EXPECTED
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRANCES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING WELL OVER THESE
AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF FRANCES...THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER. FLOODING WILL
RESULT OVER MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
SEVERITY AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM.

...WIND IMPACTS...
OVER NORTH FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 45 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO A REMAIN
A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
ALABAMA.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT OF STORM SURGE AND
STORM TIDAL IMPACTS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...COASTAL JEFFERSON...TAYLOR AND
DIXIE COUNTIES. CURRENT TIDES ARE AROUND NORMAL LEVELS...WITH
EXPECTED RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.  INCREASED RISES OF 2 TO
5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE LOCAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
TODAY: HIGH/6:45 PM...LOW/11:47 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:30 AM AND 7:50 PM...LOW/1:16 PM

APALACHEE BAY...SHELL POINT...
TODAY: HIGH/6:42 PM...LOW/11:42 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:35 AM AND 7:47 PM...LOW/1:13 PM

APALACHICOLA...
TODAY: LOW/2:38 PM...HIGH/9:39 PM
SUNDAY: LOW:1:28 AM AND 3:34 PM...HIGH/7:19 AM AND 11:35 PM

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
TODAY:  HIGH/6:31 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:50 AM AND 7:32 PM...LOW/12:08 AM AND 1:16 PM

WAVES IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WERE FROM 3
TO 5 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR
SHORE...6 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN
PORT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 PM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

7-TREXLER



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