[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 042251
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-050400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD
TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE A WATCH
MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA EASTERN PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING GULF AND BAY COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO ST. MARKS...
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:  GADSDEN...LIBERTY...
FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE
AND DIXIE.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
FROM ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY...INCLUDING GULF AND BAY COUNTIES

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A MOVE TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
TONIGHT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. FRANCES REMAINS A
STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AFFECT AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND WITH THE
CHANCES OF RAIN DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE IMPACT OF THE STORM
WILL BE FELT OVER THE AREA WELL INTO TUESDAY OF THE COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF FRANCES FOR ANY CHANGES IN MOVEMENT
AND STRENGTH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA EASTERN PANHANDLE...THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRANCES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING WELL OVER THESE
AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
FRANCES...THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER. FLOODING WILL RESULT OVER MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE SEVERITY AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN. ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM.

...WIND IMPACTS...
OVER NORTH FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO A REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN ALABAMA.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDAL
IMPACTS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...
WAKULLA...COASTAL JEFFERSON...TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. CURRENT TIDES ARE
AROUND NORMAL LEVELS...WITH EXPECTED RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.  INCREASED RISES
OF 2 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE LOCAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
TODAY: HIGH/6:45 PM...LOW/11:47 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:30 AM AND 7:50 PM...LOW/1:16 PM

APALACHEE BAY...SHELL POINT...
TODAY: HIGH/6:42 PM...LOW/11:42 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:35 AM AND 7:47 PM...LOW/1:13 PM

APALACHICOLA...
TODAY: LOW/2:38 PM...HIGH/9:39 PM
SUNDAY: LOW:1:28 AM AND 3:34 PM...HIGH/7:19 AM AND 11:35 PM

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
TODAY:  HIGH/6:31 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:50 AM AND 7:32 PM...LOW/12:08 AM AND 1:16 PM

WAVES IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WERE FROM 3
TO 5 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR
SHORE...6 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 PM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

7-TREXLER

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