[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 042038
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.8N  81.9W      45  X  X  X 45   CEDAR KEY FL      25  9  X  X 34
29.0N  84.0W       9 20  X  X 29   ST MARKS FL        1 23  2  X 26
30.5N  86.0W       X 11 10  1 22   APALACHICOLA FL    1 21  2  1 25
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X 17  5  1 23
MIAMI FL          16  X  X  X 16   PENSACOLA FL       X  4 13  2 19
W PALM BEACH FL   99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  1 12  4 17
FT PIERCE FL      99  X  X  X 99   GULFPORT MS        X  X  9  6 15
COCOA BEACH FL    62  X  X  X 62   BURAS LA           X  X  6  5 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL  38  X  X  X 38   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  4  8 12
JACKSONVILLE FL   14 11  1  X 26   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  8  9
SAVANNAH GA        X  9  4  1 14   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC      X  2  3  2  7   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 85W       1 22  X  1 24
MARCO ISLAND FL   20  X  X  X 20   GULF 29N 87W       X  8  7  1 16
FT MYERS FL       30  X  X  X 30   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  3  3  7
VENICE FL         32  X  X  X 32   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  3  4
TAMPA FL          39  X  X  1 40   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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