[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KJAX 041544
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ154-166-042130-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1138 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST.
JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST. IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA
TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY MARION
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...EAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...BUT A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD RESULT
IN HURRICANE CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE OUTER RAINSHIELD OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
FLAGLER...ST. JOHNS...AND PUTNAM COUNTY AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ST JOHNS COUNTY...
SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS HAVE BEEN OPENED FOR ELECTRICALLY DEPENDANT
CITIZENS. THE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE LOCATED AT THE ST JOHNS
COUNTY AGRICULTURAL CENTER AND THE HASTINGS COMMUNITY CENTER.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION RECOMMENDED FOR MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED
HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...BOAT RESIDENTS AND SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO CITIZENS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING
BY RAIN LOCATED THROUGHOUT ST JOHNS COUNTY.  A SHELTER HAS BEEN
OPENED AT PEDRO MENENDEZ HIGH SCHOOL IN ST. AUGUSTINE.

RESIDENTS WHO FEEL THEIR HOME IS SAFE FROM FLOODING AND WIND DO NOT
NEED TO EVACUATE AT THIS TIME.

FLAGLER COUNTY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION STARTING AT 6 AM TODAY IS BEING ORDERED
FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ALSO BEING ORDERED FOR ALL MODULAR...
MANUFACTURED...MOBILE HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...AND
ALL HOMES IN LOW-LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGHOUT FLAGLER COUNTY.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN THE CITY OF PALM COAST FOR
RESIDENTS OF THE WOODLANDS AND ALL RESIDENTS ON SALTWATER CANALS
EAST OF FLORIDA PARK DRIVE OR PALM HARBOR PARKWAY...NORTH OF PALM
COAST PARKWAY...AT NOON TODAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 6 AM TODAY FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.

GENERAL AREA INFORMATION...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. INTERESTS IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTIONS TO SECURE LIFE AND
PROPERTY PRIOR THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A
NORMAL TIDE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN COMBINATION WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALLL...THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY
TRACK DEVIATION TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THIS AFTERNOON...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES
AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY A RESULT OF THE HURRICANE.

WINDS ALONG THE NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FOR ST JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES SUSTAINED
WINDS REACHING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL BE NEAR
12 FEET TODAY AND BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STAY IN PORT. THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT...SOME AREAS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TODAY...AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

BASED ON THE PREDICTED TRACK OF FRANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO
4 INCHES. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF
THE STORM WERE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS THE STORM MOVES BY
THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT.

$$

LETRO

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