[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 041500
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA...WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO JUST
NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ST. MARKS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...EAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. A WIND GUST OF 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JUPITER
INLET AT 9 AM EDT AND A WIND GUST OF 70 MPH WAS REPORTED AT BOYNTON
BEACH AT 1020 AM EDT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 961
MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 78.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


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