[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 041447
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  8.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  38.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

 9.9N  44.5W      49  X  X  X 49   TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  X 10 10
10.6N  47.8W       3 31  1  X 35   80400 157N 636W    X  X  X  5  5
11.4N  51.0W       X 10 15  1 26   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  X 10 10
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X  X  5  5   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  X  9  9
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X  X  8  8   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  X  7  7
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X  X  6  6   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  X  5  5
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X  X 13 13   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X  2  2
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  X  9  9   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X  2  2
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X  X 10 10   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X  2  2
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  X 11 11   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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