[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 041010
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
041600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...THE LANDFALL OF HURRICANE FRANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...

...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY
BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...WITH A TURN TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS FRANCES BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED. LANDFALL STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD ALREADY BE NEAR
COMPLETION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN PASSING SQUALLS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO HURRICANE WINDS. IT IS NOW TIME TO CONCENTRATE
ON KEEPING YOURSELF SAFE DURING THE STORM. AS FRANCES MAKES LANDFALL
THIS EVENING...PEOPLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE CORE OF MAXIMUM WINDS
SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A SMALL ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR SUCH AS A
CLOSET OR BATHROOM...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF WHERE FRANCES MOVES
ONSHORE. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE HURRICANE WINDS AS
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE DETERIORATING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN MOVE IN.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH WINDS OF 105 MPH...FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.
IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME REORGANIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WHICH
MEANS THAT FRANCES COULD STILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE
STORM WITH WINDS NEAR 110 MPH...MAKING FRANCES A DANGEROUS AND MAJOR
HURRICANE. THEREFORE...THE WIND THREAT REMAINS EXTREME.
IMPORTANTLY...THE THREAT OF MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF LANDFALL...LIKELY BETWEEN STUART AND VERO
BEACH. IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS TRUE...AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE CATEGORY ONE FORCE WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT NO ONE DROPS THEIR GUARD. WINDS OF 105
TO 110 MPH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TO EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. CATEGORY ONE
FORCE WINDS CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND MOBILE
HOMES.

RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING AND BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. APPROXIMATELY 6 FEET OF SURGE WILL OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE
IMMEDIATE RIGHT OF WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COAST. A SURGE OF 4 TO
5 FEET WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A SURGE OF 3 FEET IS
LIKELY. ALSO...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE
BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT
WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER
THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY BE EXTENDED. RAIN TOTALS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN MANY PLACES...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE PENINSULA. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD
FLOODING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING
ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE TIME OF
MAXIMUM HEATING AND WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. OF COURSE...TORNADOES
WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TOO.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DWS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net