[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 041001
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-041600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...WINDS AND SQUALLS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
FRANCES APPROACHES...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF PALM
BEACH. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.  A RETURN TO
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND FRANCES SHOULD
BE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FRANCES IS
A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SQUALLS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS THE
SPIRAL BANDS ROTATE ONSHORE. THE THREAT FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY LONG IN DURATION. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE ACTUAL STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF
FRANCES CROSSES THE COAST. AT PRESENT...FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COAST AROUND JUPITER
INLET. STORM TIDE IS A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE FOR THE JUPITER
INLET AREA WILL BE AROUND 2 PM TODAY. IN MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT IF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ACTUALLY COMES INLAND FARTHER SOUTH...A HIGHER STORM
TIDE WOULD OCCUR.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL ON THURSDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 6 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE
SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THIS
WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO
THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY ...
BELLE GLADE...PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE INSIDE HOOVER
DIKE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL THIS EVENING.
THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS
INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT
IMPACT ON THE LAKE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION
FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND HOW STRONG IT ACTUALLY IS WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE LAKE.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AND THE CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. THIS COULD FLOOD PARTS OF STATE ROAD 29 BETWEEN
TAMIAMI TRAIL AND CHOKOLOSKEE. FROM MARCO ISLAND NORTH TO NAPLES AND BONITA
BEACH THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. HIGH TIDE FOR THE NAPLES AREA WILL BE AROUND 430 AM SUNDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AS OF 5 AM TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA METRO AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...
PARTICULARLY IN SQUALLS. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES TO UPROOT AND LARGE LIMBS
TO BREAK WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. OVER NORTHERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. ACROSS SOUTH PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
HURRICANE FORCE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
SQUALLS. OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WINDS WILL GUST FREQUENTY TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AND POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE FORCE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD
FRANCES WOBBLE ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE TOWARD PALM BEACH COUNTY THE WIND
IMPACT WOULD BE HIGHER.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
TODAY AND HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEARSHORE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WITH MODERATE SWELLS COULD
IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST MAINLY FROM
RIVIERA BEACH NORTH TO JUPITER INLET PRODUCING SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THERE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT RAINFALL COULD STILL BE VERY HEAVY AND
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15 TO 20 INCHES AND MORE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING
HURRICANES. RAINBANDS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING LATE SUNDAY.

FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY COULD
REACH UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND NOON TODAY.

$$

PFOST/SANTOS

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