[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 040556
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...FRANCES NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
...70 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.  A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION
CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FRANCES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BORDERLINE CATEGORY TWO/THREE HURRICANE UNTIL
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE
OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.  COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.  STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 78.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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