[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 040451
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-041000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM
BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY
EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 150 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI BEACH.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO WEEK STEERING
CURRENTS. FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND STRENGTH SATURDAY MORNING AND
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD HAVE NOW BEEN COMPLETED. THE RISK FROM HURRICANE
FRANCES...ESPECIALLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WILL BE LONG IN DURATION LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

EVACUATION ORDERS IN THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. CALL YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE
NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE ACTUAL STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF
FRANCES CROSSES THE COAST. AT PRESENT...FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COAST. STORM TIDE IS A
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS.
THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE FOR THE JUPITER INLET AREA WILL BE AROUND 2
PM ON SATURDAY. IN MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
ACTUALLY COMES INLAND FARTHER SOUTH...THE THREAT OF THIS MAX STORM TIDE WOULD
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF
FRANCES WERE TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL THIS FORECAST MAX STORM
TIDE COULD ALSO INCREASE.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL ON THURSDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 6 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE
SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THIS
WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO
THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY ...
BELLE GLADE...PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE INSIDE HOOVER
DIKE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE HOOVER DIKE
PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...
KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING SOME
CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE...THE
STORM SURGE THEN IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AND
INCREASE ON THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE WHERE THE MAX STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 3 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE LAKE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND HOW
INTENSE IT ACTUALLY IS WHEN IT APPROACHES THE LAKE.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...THE COMBINATION OF THE
STORM SURGE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY
BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAX STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY
COAST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN EXACT STORM TIDE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FORECAST TRACK FRANCES ENDS UP TAKING ACROSS THE STATE
AND ITS INTENSITY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AS OF MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...12 AM SATURDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA METRO AREAS WARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...JUST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WINDS
ARE ALREADY SUSTAINED AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. TROPICAL FORCE WINDS OF ABOVE 39 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE FORCE...PARTICULARLY IN SQUALLS. THESE
WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES TO UPROOT AND LARGE LIMBS TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. OVER NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WINDS WILL REACH
HURRICANE FORCE LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EITHER REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR FREQUENTLY GUST TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SQUALLS. IF FRANCES SHOULD
MOVE DIRECTLY TO THE WEST DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA...THE WIND IMPACT
WOULD SUDDENLY INCREASE AND PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR
VIGILANCE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS WILL
REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND HURRICANE FORCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE FROM
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ALSO...DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PALM
BEACH COUNTY COAST PRODUCING SEVERE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY
IN THAT AREA.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF FRANCES AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY. SHOULD THE TRACK OR INTENSITY CHANGE
THE MARINE IMPACTS WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
FRANCES IS ABSORBING SOME DRIER AIR FROM ITS SURROUNDINGS. THIS COULD LESSEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
FRANCES MEANS THAT RAINFALL COULD STILL BE VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
AND MORE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING HURRICANES. RAINBANDS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY COULD
REACH UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM ON SATURDAY.

$$

SANTOS

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