[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KJAX 040320
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-040930-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...FRANCES NOW MOVING THROUGH THE ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST.
JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...STORM INFORMATION...
THE COMBINATION OF WATCH AND WARNING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD RESULT IN HURRICANE
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES BRINGS THE CENTER
INLAND SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA...THERE IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAINLY IN THE TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE NO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THE THREAT
OF FLOODING RAINFALL AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM MOVES
CLOSER OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND
SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DUVAL COUNTY...
THERE ARE NO EVACUATIONS FOR DUVAL COUNTY AT THIS TIME.  ANY
EVACUATIONS FOR DUVAL COUNTY WILL BE ADDRESSED AT 700 AM SATURDAY.

ST JOHNS COUNTY...
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION RECOMMENDED FOR MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED
HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...BOAT RESIDENTS AND SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO CITIZENS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING
BY RAIN LOCATED THROUGHOUT ST JOHNS COUNTY.  A SHELTER HAS BEEN
OPENED AT PEDRO MENENDEZ HIGH SCHOOL 600 STATE ROAD 206 WEST ST.
AUGUSTINE.

FLAGLER COUNTY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION STARTING AT 6 AM SATURDAY IS BEING ORDERED
FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ALSO BEING ORDERED FOR ALL MODULAR...
MANUFACTURED...MOBILE HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...AND
ALL HOMES IN LOW-LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGHOUT FLAGLER COUNTY.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN THE CITY OF PALM COAST FOR
RESIDENTS OF THE WOODLANDS AND ALL RESIDENTS ON SALTWATER CANALS
EAST OF FLORIDA PARK DRIVE OR PALM HARBOR PARKWAY...NORTH OF PALM
COAST PARKWAY...AT NOON ON SATURDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.

THIS EVACUATION MUST BE COMPLETED BY 3 PM SATURDAY.

GENERAL AREA INFORMATION...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. INTERESTS IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTIONS TO SECURE LIFE AND
PROPERTY PRIOR THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THOUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A NORMAL
TIDE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY TRACK DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY A RESULT OF THE
HURRICANE.

DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AT
LANDFALL...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF PUTNAM
AND MARION COUNTIES DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD OVER OTHER
PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GENERAL WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.FOR INLAND
AREAS COULD REACH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST. WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BEACHES COULD REACH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AT THIS TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 12 FEET TODAY AND TO OVER 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT...SOME AREAS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES.  IF THE STORM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY OR EVEN STALLS WE COULD
SEE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 INCHES. RAIN BANDS
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS THE STORM MOVES BY
THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT.

$$

SANDRIK

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