[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 040225
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT MON SEP  6 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.0N  79.8W      50  X  X  X 50   FT MYERS FL       16  4  1  X 21
27.6N  81.2W      28  2  1  X 31   VENICE FL          8 10  1  1 20
28.7N  83.1W       X 15  5  2 22   TAMPA FL           4 16  1  1 22
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   CEDAR KEY FL       X 14  6  2 22
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   ST MARKS FL        X  3 12  4 19
MARATHON FL        5  2  X  1  8   APALACHICOLA FL    X  2 12  4 18
MIAMI FL          26  X  X  X 26   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1 10  6 17
W PALM BEACH FL   42  X  X  X 42   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  5  9 14
FT PIERCE FL      41  X  X  X 41   MOBILE AL          X  X  2 10 12
COCOA BEACH FL    31  2  1  X 34   GULFPORT MS        X  X  1  9 10
DAYTONA BEACH FL   9 13  1  1 24   BURAS LA           X  X  1  7  8
JACKSONVILLE FL    X 10  7  3 20   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  7  7
SAVANNAH GA        X  1  7  7 15   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  7 10   GULF 29N 85W       X  4 10  4 18
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  5  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  7  6 13
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1  5  6
KEY WEST FL        2  1  1  1  5   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2
MARCO ISLAND FL   15  3  X  X 18

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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