[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 031546
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-031830-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS FROM FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ELEUTHRA ISLAND . THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF OCEAN
REEF AND 324 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. FRANCES WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES WAS STILL A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT IN MONROE COUNTY AND ALL COUNTY
OFFICES ARE CLOSED. SCHOOLS AND LIBRARIES ARE CLOSED TODAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS...OUTER BANDS HAVE ENCROACHED UPON PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN
STATION...LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
REEF...HAS RECORDED SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS.  FURTHER TO THE WEST...C-MAN STATIONS
BETWEEN MOLASSES REEF AND SAND KEY...HAVE RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...WITH  GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BEYOND THE REEF THIS AFTERNOON...AND UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY
CAUSE TIDE LEVELS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES
OF THE KEYS.

TIMES OF HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SATURDAY:
OCEAN REEF IN KEY LARGO...1223 PM...1231 AM SATURDAY.
VACA CUT IN MARATHON...1237 PM...1222 AM SATURDAY.
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...1249 PM...1257 AM SATURDAY.
KEY WEST HARBOR...148 PM...133 AM SATURDAY.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING IS 6 PERCENT. IT
IS 8 PERCENT FOR MARATHON AND 21 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT.

$$

FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS





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