[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 031516
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-070>074-032230-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY
EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI BEACH.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WITH THE SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...MANY REMAINING PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS CAN
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.  SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDOWN
TODAY.

THE RISK FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY LONG IN DURATION. DO NOT BE
LULLED INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY SIMPLY BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED
DOWN. THIS REMAINS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

EVACUATION ORDERS IN THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. AREA SCHOOLS REMAIN CLOSED.  CALL YOUR LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ALTHOUGH FRANCES HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT
WILL RESTRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL ARE STILL POSSIBLE...JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
STORM TIDE IS A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...AND THEREFORE ACTUAL STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR A LANDFALL NORTH OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL THURSDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS
MUCH AS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...
HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING
CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO PORT MAYACA INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...
CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE AND PAHOKEE. THE MAXIMUM STORM
TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE WOULD THEREFORE BE ABOUT 24 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE LAKE AND AS HIGH AS 20
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE. THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS
INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...
KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING
SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT
IMPACT ON THE LAKE STILL DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION
FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SQUALLS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
FREQUENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TONIGHT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH MEANS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE. WINDS WILL APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE OVER NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IF FRANCES SHOULD TAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST...THE
WIND IMPACT WOULD SUDDENLY INCREASE AND PERSONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR VIGILANCE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES TONIGHT.
ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND REACH HURRICANE FORCE LATE SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS IN SAFE HARBOR ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE LEVELS OR DRY DOCK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. AGAIN IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
FRANCES. SHOULD THE TRACK CHANGE THE MARINE IMPACTS WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT AN EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG AND NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES AND MORE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING HURRICANES.
SQUALLS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAINFALL WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND
FINALLY THE MAXIMUM RAINS WITH THE CENTER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT LASTING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AGAIN A VERY LONG DURATION. FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE
FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF FRANCES. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

$$

LUSHINE
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