[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 030956
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
031600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES UNDERGOING CHANGES BUT STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE
24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE FRANCES HAS AFFORDED CENTRAL FLORIDIANS A LITTLE MORE TIME
TO PREPARE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THIS
EXTRA TIME SHOULD BE USED WISELY FOR THOSE WHO STILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAKING IT A DANGEROUS
SITUATION. PEOPLE SHOULD DILIGENTLY COMPLETE THEIR FAMILY ACTION
PLAN TODAY. FINAL PREPARATIONS MUST BE COMPLETED BEFORE THE ONSET OF
HIGH WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING ON THE LOWER
EAST COAST NEAR STUART AND PALM BEACH. EXAMINE YOUR PERSONAL
SITUATION AND SMARTLY DECIDE THE APPROPRIATE ACTION WHICH PLACES YOU
IN A SAFE AND SECURE LOCATION BEFORE THE HIGH WINDS ARRIVE. IN ALL
CASES...FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND LEAVE
IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...OR
IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME...OR EVEN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU
SHOULD EVACUATE. IF YOU ARE EVACUATING OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVE AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE HEAD TO THE DESIGNATED SHELTERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
FRANCES ARE NEAR 120 MPH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...
FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY LIKELY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR FRANCES TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN VERO
BEACH AND STUART SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
ITSELF...WHICH MAY SHIFT A LITTLE AS FRANCES DRAWS NEARER TO THE
COAST.

THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CORE OF FRANCES WITH THE
GREATEST DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF THE SPOT OF LANDFALL.
THIS PLACES COASTAL LOCATIONS AT LARGEST RISK...ESPECIALLY FROM
BREVARD COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY. AS FRANCES MOVES INLAND...COUNTIES
AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...
WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
WIND GUSTS OF MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE. AS WITH CHARLEY...THESE
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. WITH WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE
TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...
WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT HURRICANE SHUTTERS OR
WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY
EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES
EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING
WAVES WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH
WINDS SPEEDS AND DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE
ALSO LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE FRANCES
WILL BE FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
THE GREATER THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND
MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE
SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF
EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE AT MANY COUNTY
LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES
MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES
WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DWS

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