[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 030837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...CENTER OF DANGEROUS FRANCES APPROACHING ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.0 WEST OR JUST EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WHILE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT FRANCES HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...IT IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  ELEUTHERA HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 81 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 76.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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