[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 030832
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT MON SEP  6 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.4N  78.3W      53  X  X  X 53   KEY WEST FL        1  2  X  3  6
27.1N  79.5W      32  3  X  X 35   MARCO ISLAND FL    3  9  2  2 16
27.6N  80.7W       7 17  1  1 26   FT MYERS FL        1 13  2  2 18
MYAK 241N 776W     7  X  X  1  8   VENICE FL          X 10  5  3 18
MYNN 251N 775W    55  X  X  X 55   TAMPA FL           X  9  7  4 20
MYGF 266N 787W    45  1  X  X 46   CEDAR KEY FL       X  2 11  5 18
MARATHON FL        3  4  X  2  9   ST MARKS FL        X  X  5 10 15
MIAMI FL          18  3  1  X 22   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  4 10 14
W PALM BEACH FL   23  5  1  X 29   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 11 13
FT PIERCE FL      14 13  1  1 29   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  9  9
COCOA BEACH FL     3 20  2  1 26   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  7  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X 11  7  3 21   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  5  5
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  9  7 17   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2 10 12   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  8  8   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  5  9 14
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  8  9
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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