[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 030300
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-030630-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.
WIND IMPACTS UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF OCEAN
REEF...AND 400 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY. TOLLS
HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND CARD SOUND ROAD. ALL
MONROE COUNTY OFFICES (NON-ESSENTIAL) ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES ARE MANDATED TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FRIDAY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT
FOR NON-RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FROM CRAIG KEY AT MILE MARKER 72 TO
OCEAN REEF...HOWEVER THEY HAVE THE OPTION OF EVACUATING SOUTH TO THE
LOWER KEYS. SHELTERS WILL OPEN FRIDAY MORNING AS OF 8AM...AT CORAL
SHORES HIGH SCHOOL ON PLANTATION KEY...STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN
MARATHON...AND GLYNN ARCHER SCHOOL IN KEY WEST. JOHN PENNECAMP AND
LONG KEY STATE PARTS HAVE CLOSED THEIR CAMPGROUNDS. AN EVACUATION
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
KEYS ONLY IF A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. THE MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY INFORMATION LINE IS 1 800...9 5 5...5 5 0 4. RESIDENTS IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD SECURE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN
ABOUT BY WINDS BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE
TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF ERROR...AND ALL ARE ADVISED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND NEWS MEDIA SOURCES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND REMAIN
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND
FOR THE REST OF THE KEYS WATERS DURING FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 9 FEET BEYOND THE REEF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 10 TO 15
FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
CURRENT TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE NO
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TIDE LEVELS MAY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE KEYS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON
WILL OCCUR AT 1149 PM TONIGHT...AND 1237 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDES AT THE WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL
OCCUR AT 1216 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AND 1249 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING IS 5 PERCENT FOR
KEY WEST...8 PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 18 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM EDT FRIDAY.

$$

LK















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