[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 030229
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  75.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT SUN SEP  5 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.1N  77.9W      46  X  X  X 46   KEY WEST FL        X  2  1  2  5
26.8N  79.1W      28  2  X  X 30   MARCO ISLAND FL    1  8  2  3 14
27.6N  80.6W       3 14  3  1 21   FT MYERS FL        1  9  3  3 16
MYSM 241N 745W    99  X  X  X 99   VENICE FL          X  7  5  4 16
MYEG 235N 758W     3  X  X  X  3   TAMPA FL           X  6  8  4 18
MYAK 241N 776W    23  1  X  X 24   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1 10  6 17
MYNN 251N 775W    49  X  X  X 49   ST MARKS FL        X  X  4 10 14
MYGF 266N 787W    35  X  X  X 35   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  4 10 14
MARATHON FL        2  3  1  2  8   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 10 12
MIAMI FL          11  5  1  1 18   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  9  9
W PALM BEACH FL   13  8  1  1 23   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  6  6
FT PIERCE FL       5 14  2  1 22   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  5  5
COCOA BEACH FL     1 14  4  2 21   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  7  9  4 20   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  3  3
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  7  8 16   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  5  9 14
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2  8 10   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  9 10
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  7  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  4  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
C FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
D FROM  8PM SAT TO  8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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