[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 022355
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-030330-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
830 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES BATTERS SAN SALVADOR ISLAND WITH 120
MPH WINDS...

...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED.
WIND IMPACTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES
AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST...OR
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF OCEAN REEF...AND 420 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY. TOLLS
HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND CARD SOUND ROAD. ALL
MONROE COUNTY OFFICES (NON-ESSENTIAL) ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES ARE MANDATED TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FRIDAY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT
FOR NON-RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FROM CRAIG KEY AT MILE MARKER 72 TO
OCEAN REEF...HOWEVER THEY HAVE THE OPTION OF EVACUATING SOUTH TO THE
LOWER KEYS. SHELTERS WILL OPEN FRIDAY MORNING AS OF 8AM...AT CORAL
SHORES HIGH SCHOOL ON PLANTATION KEY...STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN
MARATHON...AND GLYNN ARCHER SCHOOL IN KEY WEST. JOHN PENNECAMP AND
LONG KEY STATE PARTS HAVE CLOSED THEIR CAMPGROUNDS. AN EVACUATION
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
KEYS ONLY IF A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. THE MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY INFORMATION LINE IS 1 800...9 5 5...5 5 0 4. RESIDENTS IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD SECURE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN
ABOUT BY WINDS BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE
TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF ERROR...AND ALL ARE ADVISED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND NEWS MEDIA SOURCES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT DURING FRIDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN FLORIDA BAY...
AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BEYOND THE REEF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
UP TO 10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOATERS PLANNING TO RELOCATE THEIR CRAFT BY WATER SHOULD PLAN TO DO
SO THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
CURRENT TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE NO
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TIDE LEVELS MAY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE KEYS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON
WILL OCCUR AT 1149 PM TONIGHT...AND 1237 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDES AT THE WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL
OCCUR AT 1216 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AND 1249 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS 7 PERCENT FOR
KEY WEST...9 PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 20 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY.

$$

LK













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