[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 022029
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES
TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 24.1N  74.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 24.9N  76.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N  77.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.7N  80.5W    90 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  83.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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