[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 022029
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY AFFECT THE SYSTEM
ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT
TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS IS FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z  9.7N  29.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z  9.7N  31.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 10.0N  35.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 10.3N  38.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 10.8N  41.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 12.0N  48.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 12.9N  54.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 14.0N  60.0W    70 KT


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