[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 021559
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-021830-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1153 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...

...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.42 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 420 MILES EAST
OF OCEAN REEF...AND 500 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. FRANCES IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WHICH MAKES FRANCES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY. A
MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR NON-RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS IN THE UPPER KEYS ABOVE THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ALL
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES ARE MANDATED TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY.
AN EVACUATION IS REQUIRED FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE KEYS FRIDAY MORNING. SHELTERS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL
OPEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOLLS HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED ON THE FLORIDA
TURNPIKE AND CARD SOUND ROAD. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL NOT HAVE
CLASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON
THURSDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION LINE IS 1 800...9 5
5...5 5 0 4. RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD SECURE
OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT BY WINDS BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING.
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF
ERROR...AND ALL ARE ADVISED TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NEWS MEDIA SOURCES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS...WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT DURING FRIDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN FLORIDA BAY...
AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
UP TO 10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOATERS PLANNING TO RELOCATE THEIR CRAFT BY WATER SHOULD PLAN TO DO
SO BY THURSDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
CURRENT TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE NO
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TIDE LEVELS MAY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE KEYS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON
WILL OCCUR AT 1151 AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND 1149 PM THURSDAY
EVENING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT THE WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL HIGHWAY ONE
BRIDGE WILL OCCUR AT 1203 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 1216 AM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY NIGHT 8 PERCENT FOR
KEY WEST...11 PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 19 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT THURSDAY.

$$

DEVANAS


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