[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 020831
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  73.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST SUN SEP  5 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.6N  76.3W      46  X  X  X 46   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X 10 10
25.6N  78.0W      15 14  X  1 30   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  7  7
26.6N  79.5W       X 17  4  2 23   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4
MUCM 214N 779W     1  X  X  1  2   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  1  X  2  3   KEY WEST FL        X  2  5  4 11
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  1  3  4   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  3  9  5 17
MYMM 224N 730W    99  X  X  X 99   FT MYERS FL        X  2 10  5 17
MYSM 241N 745W    74  X  X  X 74   VENICE FL          X  1  8  7 16
MYEG 235N 758W    45  X  X  X 45   TAMPA FL           X  X  8  9 17
MYAK 241N 776W    24  3  1  X 28   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  3 12 15
MYNN 251N 775W    28  5  X  X 33   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W     2 21  1  1 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X 10 10
MARATHON FL        X  5  6  3 14   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  9  9
MIAMI FL           X 12  6  2 20   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  5  5
W PALM BEACH FL    X 12  7  3 22   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  7 10  4 21   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X  3 12  5 20   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1 10 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  9  9 18   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  6  6
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  2 12 14   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
C FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
D FROM  2AM SAT TO  2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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