[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 020628
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-020930-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...

...STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS ARE LIKELY TO CLOSE THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF THROUGH THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF KEY LARGO...
TAVERNIER...ISLAMORADA...AND MARATHON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 525 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO...AND 600 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WHICH MAKES FRANCES A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...OR 27.67
INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY. MONROE
COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO
EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS OR VISITORS AT THIS TIME. ALL
PERSONS SHOULD LISTEN FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY AND YOUR
LOCAL MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS IF THEY BECOME NECESSARY. THE MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION LINE IS 1 800...9 5 5...5 5 0 4.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT BY WINDS
INDOORS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF ERROR...AND ALL ARE
ADVISED TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR FAVORITE NEWS MEDIA SOURCE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT DURING FRIDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN FLORIDA BAY...
AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
UP TO 10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOATERS PLANNING TO RELOCATE THEIR CRAFT BY WATER SHOULD PLAN TO DO
SO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
CURRENT TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE NO
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TIDE LEVELS MAY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE KEYS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON
WILL OCCUR AT 1151 AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND 1149 PM THURSDAY
EVENING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT THE WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL HIGHWAY ONE
BRIDGE WILL OCCUR AT 1203 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 1216 AM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY EVENING IS 11 PERCENT
FOR KEY WEST...14 PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 20 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT THURSDAY.

$$

K. KASPER



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